Electric Cars - are we really all going to have one in the future?

Discussion in 'General chat' started by Singvogel, Jan 22, 2018.

  1. Singvogel
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    Singvogel Moderator WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I find it hard to believe that we can all change to electric by 2040 which is the date that the UK government says it is 'committed' to banning the sale of petrol and diesel-engined vehicles.

    Do they mean to stop sales of hybrids as well?

    I was talking to a 330e hybrid owner as he recharged at Lidl the other day and he told me he gets only 12 miles if using only the electric motor, and he gets around 48mpg when on a long motorway journey with the petrol engine charging the batteries / supplementing the electric motor.

    That's a long way short of the 134mpg that BMW quote in their promotional advertising.

    I might just be able to replace my 330d with one of those.

    Battery technology and vehicle range will increase in time so in due course 100% EVs might just be useful for long journeys.

    On another tack a Kilowatt is a Kilowatt and where are they to come from?

    I recently came across this:

    It takes five minutes to fill a car with petrol. A Tesla is 30 minutes with a supercharger, and that’s to 80% of its capacity.

    So for a motorway services with 20 petrol pumps, you’d need to replace them with 120 chargers to get the same throughput of cars otherwise you would have long, long queues.

    Each Tesla charger is 120kW, so that means you would need a 14.4 mW substation to feed the 'filling station' - that's the equivalent of powering 32,000 homes in the UK. :eek:

    And you would need a substation on each side of the motorway. :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

    Are these figures correct - if so it's going to take a lot of 'commitment' to get to that stage.

    I think I'll be sticking with 6 cylinder 3 litre diesels for a good while yet. :whistle:
     
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  2. Verbarthe
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    Verbarthe WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I think our Politicians are simply touting for the Votes . Politicians rarely look past a 5 year timespan and if they do , often say things that they think will appeal to the Electorate whilst knowing full well that they will either not be in power , or retired from public life when the specific date stated comes around . As you ve pointed out , the practicalities/preparations required to implement this are enormous , and IMO not fully thought through by the Politicians .
    I think sticking to your 6 Pot 3 Ltr Diesel is a very sensible choice , because I ll be sticking to my 6 Pot Petrol 3Ltr as well, If I m still around by then :)
     
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  3. RickT
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    RickT

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    i have nothing against full EV cars when you can get 500 miles off a charge and a charge takes 5 mins i will have one... until then it has to be something with a range extender...

    As you say, the problem is going to be charging all these cars when the UK struggles at present... plus expect the massive hike by the government on tax for electric when they have no fuel duty income...
     
  4. mach one
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    mach one WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I think the answer to that part of your question is no so if your bank balance allows you will still be able to buy a LA Ferrari, Porsche 918 Spyder, or a McLaren P1 or the 2040 equivalent of the HEV hyper-cars, the press made a big thing of saying all petrol and diesel cars would be banned in 2040 but had they said that in 2040 all cars had to be HEV or full electric it would have been a bit of a non story

    you mentioned Tesla they are forging ahead with all electric technology and they are making usable all electric vehicles, i was looking at a model S at RIAT last year it was a 100D and they were talking of 400 miles range and sub three seconds to 60mph so if you acually get half that range say 200 miles then you stop at a supercharger and have a coffee break while you boost to 80% charge it makes the car usable for most people, i live in a rural area and it is 75 miles to the nearest tesla supercharge but it would still work for most if not all of my journeys, it is a 360 mile trip one way to my parents house and i reckon that would be doable in a Tesla S with one or two stops

    but as mentioned above the logistics of charging all these full electric cars is an absolute nightmare and every parking space at a service station would need a super fast charging point and where all the power is going to come from is beyond me
     
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  5. Singvogel
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    Singvogel Moderator WARLORD Site Supporter

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    Plus I wouldn't be surprised if there was to be 'Road Fuel Duty' payable on the electricity used to recharge them - a 2 tier electricity meter system perhaps - just as we have red diesel at present for domestic fuel, marine and off-road agricultural use.

    That could lead to 'illicit charging' with 'cheaper' electricity ................... just as some unscrupulous country types run their LandRovers on the red stuff.

    Can you add dye to electricity? ;)
     
  6. Peter
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    Peter WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I see two major problems.

    The 'convenient' energy itself, required to propel vehicles: The energy density in a tank of fuel, petrol or diesel, is going to be hard to achieve with electricity, however we dress it up.

    Batteries: Unless we invent something completely different than anything we have at present, (requires readily available materials), where are the raw materials going to come from to supply an ever expanding market?

    Peter
     
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  7. Peter
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    Peter WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I'd hope any one buying into hybrids, would at least realise if they are driving distances where the EV range is easily exceeded, (really irrelevant), are dropping to similar petrol consumption figures to 'normal' petrol models of a similar type.

    Hybrid consumption figures under the current test regime are totally misleading, as it can get away with a low EV range.

    Peter
     
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  8. Highsided
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    Highsided

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    There are two trips I make at least twice a year: heading north, 400 miles to the ferry, across the channel, another 400 miles to see family and friends, some running about, then the return journey; the other regular journey we head south into Spain, 750 miles to our destination, sometimes we do it in one leg, othertimes with a "half-way" stop over, followed by the usual tourist stuff on arrival, and then the 750 mile return trip.

    Some of the roads in Spain are quite remote, with widely spaced fuel stops. An all electric vehicle using current technology? Give me a break.

    And while considering the feasibility don't forget that after 5 years batteries will typically have lost half their capacity, ie roughly half the distance they can propel you.
     
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  9. slim_boy_fat
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    slim_boy_fat WARLORD Site Supporter

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    Seemples. You'll be given the choice of boiling the kettle/putting on lights/heating the house, or taking the car out for 20 miles.........decisions, decisions. :D
     
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  10. Peter
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    Peter WARLORD Site Supporter

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    So true. :)

    Easy solution, just have a fast charge point at every lamp post. :) I've seen that idea as a serious proposal.:rolleyes: The fact every lamp would then require at least a 22kW supply (current fast charger requirement), doesn't seem to register.:whistle:

    Never mind Rapid/Quick charging. Requirement; AC three phase rapid charging is typically at 43kW power output (at 63 Amps per phase from a three phase AC supply).

    Peter
     
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  11. E39mad
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    E39mad

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    530e owners on another cough cough website are getting at worst 15 miles and at best 28 miles before the battery is empty.

    Perfect for the commuter in a city but not for those who do regular long distances where a diesel will still be more economical and practical from a refuelling viewpoint.
     
  12. idrussell
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    idrussell Site Supporter

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    I seem to be missing the point with the ban on diesel and petrol cars. I understood it was to do with being 'green' and reducing emissions. Where do politicians and most of the public think electricity comes from, in the main by burning fossil fuels which produce emissions. It is no where near as efficient to burn gas or coal to generate electricity to send down a wire to a battery in a car, compared to burning the fuel directly in a car. Also has anyone worked out a clean way of disposing of all the worn out car battery's every 5 years..
    To my mind car manufactures are being forced in the wrong direction. Hydrogen as a fuel source would seem to be the ideal solution. Refuel in 5 minutes at a Hydrogen station and the emissions are H2O. I know Honda and BMW were working on Hydrogen cars but they seem to have been shelved. I understand storing liquid Hydrogen safely is not very easy but it has got to be easier / cleaner / more like current vehicles than the electric route!?
     
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  13. Peter
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    Peter WARLORD Site Supporter

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    I'm in a position (for most of my current car use), where a plug-in hybrid could possibly work.

    I'd need at least 30 miles range to make it work efficiently. I can charge at home, no real 'speed of charge' issue, as it could be plugged in overnight or in the day, most days.

    Keeping with BMW, a 330e would make most sense for size, carrying battery weight around, etc. But I'm not sure the range is good enough to work in summer, let alone winter time, when battery efficiency drops off and electrical load is much higher. Plus I am not yet convinced the ICE is suited to a couple miles running at the end of a trip, when the battery runs out. Goes against everything that concerns me even now, that engines really need to heat up and get to proper heat soak. I can envisage the worst case use of the ICE for weeks on end, unless I purposely run the engine to get it hot. Worse situation than running a diesel an extra few miles, to get complete DPF regenerations.

    Peter
     
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  14. a.s.uk
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    a.s.uk

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    I've done quite a bit of reading on tesla and their cars....( I am not buying one btw ) but it does interest me...
    It's a great idea but as everyone above has pointed out its not ALL thought through totally....
    There's the power station issue.. If everyone in the street had one would it really be any greener...? Doesn't look that way.....charging. where's all the power coming from... It's not 13 amps from your plug is it....( love reading about the kind of power consumption that's going to be needed.. Fascinating)
    There's the practical issue on the roads... Look at the flood of people on a busy forecourt now...We are sometimes queuing where I live as it, at local cheap style filling stations...what's the tesla car forecourt going to be like, when everyone needs 20 mins... How big is it going to be and how are they going to power it...( they are hoping you've all refuelled at home and aren't going that far) Infrastructure etc?.
    Then there the difference in car suppliers with different charging adapters.. What's the common standard going to be.
    Then what about when Apple and Google come along...with their possible electric cars. Are they going to share the common charging adapters.? NO. It's gonna be like your phone now.. You could have several charging adapters.

    To my mind, the idea is great if you live in a beatiful sunny climate all,of the time. Is. California. Middle East, wherever, etc etc... When this thing is parked at your house/ work and it's plugged in 24/7 ... For free and totally green..

    The WHOLE concept does not work everywhere when you need an external source to charge the batteries that is not from a green supply..( and that precludes all the other issues as well ) But what I can't get my head around is to penalise motourists when there is no real alternative avalable to ALL that is totally green and totally viable as an alternative yet...
    As an aside there is a good video on YouTube of battery life versus decline of ability to hold change...and they are holding up really well..some vehicles have done in excess of 200k and considerable age and are still able to hold 90% plus of charge...is the video secretly paid for by tesla.. .?
    Finally
    Personally I am someone who never trials out new technology....I am one of these people who wait in the wings, til all the other 'must have it now' guys have done the hard work suffered the failures and the technology is now 98% proven... I can't accept to be broken down somewhere, because the car had gone flat, the charging point was fully booked, etc etc etc... I'll just wait and when it's sorted mostly, I'll opt in.... Also I won't have any other choice will I. !!!!
    Ps... The insurance is not cheap... And if you prang one, you can wait months for the parts because they can't supply the production line, let alone supply you a spare front wing and bumper..!
     
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  15. Merc? No. BM!
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    Merc? No. BM! WARLORD Site Supporter

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    Gosh, 15 - 28 miles? That's awful methinks. How do all these uber drivers cope with that?
     
  16. Johnny Grabble
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    All this is environmentally driven of course. And I completely get the need to minimise the effects of greenhouse gases and that means radical change.
    The question for me is does the industry - all parts of it - want electric cars? Consider the following:
    • Other than Tesla, no conventional car manufacturer really wants to build electric cars, they have to. Expensive to develop and build, heavy, inefficient, complicated, etc. They (& their supply chains) also churn out over 100,000,000 internal combustion engines a year, employing hundreds of thousands.
    • One can assume that the oil companies don't want electric cars for obvious reasons.
    • It's fair to assume the electricity generators don't want electric cars as they'll have to build huge capacity and infrastructure (and just look at all the whining when it comes to doing that to cope with current demand and we have to ask China to own it all).
    • The car scrappers don't want electric cars. You can empty a petrol car's tank and then the car it won't ignite as you break & recycle it. Some mobile phone manufacturers can show you what happens when you puncture a Li-ion battery. There's over 7,000 of them in an electric car. And there is no facility in the UK to take and recycle Li-ion batteries, they all have to be sent abroad. And no one wants our waste any more.
    • And one could argue the Government don't really want them either as there's another small political consideration here which they've not thought through. When I buy a litre of diesel (which contains the equivalent of about 10kWh of energy, petrol's about 9kWh from memory), I pay the government 200% tax - as VAT & fuel duty combined. When I buy a kWh of electricity I pay 5% tax as VAT.
    • Taxing all electricity at 200% is - I would imagine - not going to fly. So the Government are going to have to come up with some really creative ways of taxing mobility. Expect road charging (with the traveller also paying for the billions of pounds of infrastructure that such a system would require...you think the roadworks for a smart motorway are bad, just you wait when they have to work on them all, all at once)
    Quite a challenge, isn't it?
     
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  17. rigeng
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    rigeng

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    Today I had to do a 260 mile round trip, not a long way really and I'd planned to get some fuel last night so I didn't have to bother this morning. However, I ended up having to go to my daughter's house to sort a problem with one of her electrical sockets and then forgot to get the fuel while I was out. Not a problem of course, just filled the tank on the way out of town. But what if I'd had an electric car and forgot to plug it in last night? That may have caused me problems this morning, so I'll be sticking to ICEs. I'll review the electric car issue in 10 years time when all problems have been addressed :whistle:, by then my kids will have shuffled me into an electrical Nissan Micra...:)
     
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  18. Johnny Grabble
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  19. Mieke
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    The statement by the government that all petrol and diesel powered vehicles will disappear by 2040 is IMO just political hype. Politicians nowadays are desperate to be seen as; a) politically correct, and b) environmentally friendly. Their promise that we'll all be in electric vehicles is just lip service for the voters and the environmental activists, ie. Friends of the Earth. I'm sure that sales of of plug-in electric vehicles will grow along with an increase in charging stations, but I just don't think PEV's will become the mainstream form of transport.

    For that to happen, the changes required to the infrastructure and generating industry would be huge. Just consider reality - the last nuclear power plant to come online was Sizewell B in 1995, and it has taken over 20 years to start building the next one - Hinckley C, due to go online by 2025. And as far as infrastructure goes, I just need to look at the fiasco that is ongoing to convert sections of the M6 motorway to a smart motorway. It has created chaos and congestion for more than 3 years and seems no closer to completion. So a project of the size required to switch the transport system to PEV's in two decades is simply 'Pie in the Sky' - it will never happen.

    In the next few years, improvements to both petrol and diesel ICE's will continue to enhance efficiency and reduce emissions. And other forms of propulsion such as the hydrogen fuel cell will be developed, and may possibly be what replaces our present technology.

    I briefly thought about electric vehicles, the Tesla S, before I purchased my 330d, but when I considered the cost and the impracticalities, the decision was easy - choose the high performance, 6 cylinder diesel every time. Mind you, if I'm still here in twenty years time, I shall probably be driving an electric golf cart to the shops and back. :LOL:
     
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  20. K777
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    I am on my second hybrid now.
    I have done 1400 miles and put £86 and £92 worth of petrol in.
    Not sure on how much electric I have spent.
    I do mostly urban to and from work, and rarely get the engine on.

    On the old car I worked it out to average around 70p for a full charge, averaging say 15miles per charge - assuming a gallon costs £5.40 means I can charge 7.7 times for the cost of a gallon - so 7.7 x 15miles = 115.5mile for £5.40.
    The new car has a better battery and does more to a charge.

    The BIK is the thing for me, I pay slightly less tax on a £95k car than one of my guys does on his X4d.

    For now its still all about the cost of replacement battery (and so depreciation). At some point in time someone is going to get a big bill for a new one ( extended warranty is a must on these cars I would suggest).

    But as for the original question, Yes, its inevitable.
     

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